Frankfurt, Paris (14/4 – 40)

Relations between Russia and NATO have reached boiling point due the recent event: the claim that Serbia and Russia want to refight Kosovo; the closure of the border by Finland; and the statement by the President of France, Emanuel Macron, on March, 14. 

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Sergey Lavrov, in a series of posts on social media, claimed that NATO, the EU, and the US government were targeting Kosovo and Serbia and destroying the relationship. Never mind a coalition with Italy and Russia, this is just another pipedream of Radio Moscow.

In recent days, rumours of an impending Balkan war have become more widespread, but experienced Balkan parties are calling for a cool head to prevail. Radio Moscow plays up the usual rubbish of war drums. “People forget that this alliance does not like to use force, but…,” a NATO Air Command spokesman warned.

According to Lavrov, the Kosovo police have long discredited themselves through systematic punitive measures against the Serb community. “They have tried to push the Serbs out of Kosovo through the deployment of heavily armed special forces in non-Albanian areas. There is an immediate threat of a return to the ethnic cleansing carried out by Kosovo Albanian extremists.”

Meanwhile, President Macron said that Europe must be ready for war if it wants peace. He called President Putin would not stop at Ukraine if he succeeded in defeating Kyiv forces in the conflict that has been going on for two years.

President Macron sparked controversy last month after saying he could not link the possibility of ground troops to Ukraine in the future. Many state leaders avoided this, while several other leaders, especially in the Eastern European region, supported the statement. “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility will be destroyed,” Macron said in a television interview.

However, President Putin stated that anything is possible in the modern world. “I have said and it is clear to everyone that this (possible direct conflict with NATO) would be one more step towards a full-scale third world war. I think almost no one is interested in this increasing chaos.” 

He added that French troops would perform secondary functions, training military personnel in Ukraine, explaining how to use heavy equipment, and performing several other similar functions. “Today, it is not much different from what was done by the mercenaries and later armed military personnel of the NATO countries present there,” President Putin said in speech after winning the election. 

Meanwhile, President Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Russia’s relations with NATO had reached the level of direct confrontation. “The relationship has now descended to the level of direct confrontation. NATO not only continues to escalate but is also directly involved in the conflict around Ukraine. NATO continues its advance towards our borders,” he said.

Even so, President Putin is open to dialogue with NATO. According to Peskov, President Putin often holds international dialogue with countries that show interest in developing relations with Russia, “President Putin is open to dialogue to solve complex global and regional problems.”

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This is how Alexei Navalny described the cell in which he spent 308 out of 1125 days in solitary confinement. His imprisonment amounted to both physical and mental torture of a political opponent. The fact that this tragedy occurred in FKU IK-3, known as one of the harshest prisons in Russia with direct ties to the gulag system, is more than symbolic. In other words, Alexei Navalny’s death is not just a personal tragedy, it is also a manifestation of the true nature of the Putin regime: arbitrary, harsh, brutal, and unforgiving.

Alexei Navalny was acutely aware of the risks involved, yet he made the decision to return to Russia following his treatment for poisoning inflicted by Russia’s secret forces. Regardless of one’s opinion on Navalny’s legacy – acknowledging his nationalist views and well-known stance on Crimea – his return stands as an act of unparalleled courage. It’s a profound and enigmatic gesture that many struggle to comprehend, reserved for a select few: individuals of exceptional courage facing extraordinary circumstances.

Even if we may never know the exact circumstances surrounding Navalny’s death, it is clear that President Putin bears direct responsibility. Let us not forget other opponents who have died in mysterious circumstances – remember Anna Politkovskaya and Boris Nemtsov – and the many still imprisoned by Putin’s arbitrary system – remember Ilya Yashin, Vladimir Kara-Murza, Evan Gershkovich, and many others. I wonder what Western propagandists in favor of the Kremlin have to say about this. Aren’t they also complicit?

The question remains if Navalny’s death may signify the so-called black swan that announces the unexpected, yet significant event that may irreversibly change the state of affairs in Russia. Unfortunately, we do not expect that Navalny’s death will cause major upheaval in Russian society. Most probably, we will see an asymmetric response: Russian society – with exception of the absolute minority who saw in Mr. Navalny a source of hope and an alternative for Putin’s reign – will remain indifferent. Two arguments may underscore this statement:

We know that a minority of about 15 to 20 percent of the Russia population is eager for major political change in Russia, that a cohort of about the same strength is supporting the regime in the most fanatical way, leaving about 60 to 70 percent of the population that support the regime conditionally. Moreover, since the start of the war, February 2022, we have witnessed an increased and ruthless repression, first and foremost, against those who oppose the regime even through the most innocent expression. What is left for Putin’s opposition is fear, isolation and depression. It is clear, in an authoritarian regime, courage is required for those who resist. Currently, it is but a flower in the snow on a sidewalk in Moscow.

Western observers may also not forget that Navalny’s political impact is very low, mostly due to his isolation from society. Liberal candidates against Putin are not only systematically silenced or suppressed, they have in most general terms no large appeal to the general public. In the case of Navalny, people were interested in his anti-corruption campaign against the elite, except for Putin himself. Indeed, the Russian elite is most despised by the Russian people, with the exception of the ultimate leader. Seemingly, this is a Russian cultural topos still valid in contemporary Russia. As a result, in public opinion research, Navalny could count on the support of about 1 percent of the population and has not appeared in the ratings of trustworthy politicians lately.

Many questions remain unanswered in Russia’s political labyrinth. Firstly, how will Navalny’s death be interpreted within the presidential administration – often referred to as Putin’s shadow government – given its occurrence amidst the backdrop of the upcoming presidential elections in March? Beyond the veil of political window-dressing, which is essentially a façade for deception, this event is likely to evoke unease. It certainly cannot be construed as ‘good news’ for the political strategists and election managers, with Mr. Sergey Kiriyenko at the forefront, who are keen to ensure a smooth path for Putin’s re-election. Secondly, and closely tied to this, the way the Kremlin navigates Navalny’s demise remains uncertain. How will the Kremlin portray Navalny’s death? What arrangements will be made for his funeral? Ultimately, despite Western condemnation and outrage, the Russian regime holds the key to its own destiny. The only glimmer of hope lies in the possibility that Navalny’s death – and the bravery he exhibited – will not be in vain.

Source: Egmont Institute

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Governments may be doing great while the people suffer. Bombing of the Nordstream 2 pipeline, carrying cheap Russian natural gas to industry and consumers in Europe, is exerting a cascading effect on companies and employment, eventually to be reflected in rising places and sharpening inflation. 

Russia is steadily experiencing price increases for a variety of goods and services, Russian media report. Is there obviously not a link to the sanctions placed on Russia and the seizure of Russian funds and savings abroad? Punishment for Russia’s “Special Military Operation” to purportedly protect Russian-speaking citizens in eastern Ukraine from state terrorism and neo-Nazis – and the firm conviction that the attempt by NATO to continue its “containment” and “encirclement” of Russia has become an existential matter: President Putin has vowed that Ukraine, traditionally neutral, will never be allowed to join NATO. 

Those with a historical bent might smile, seeing this as an echo of the rise to power of Fidel Castro, his embrace of communism, and the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, which nearly started World War III. Nuclear weapons are being waved in warning once again, as they were 60 years ago. “History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.”

Now the average Russian, far from the battlefield, is beginning to feel the effects of the pressure being brought by western countries on their lives. Russian media report that producers of street fast food warn of a possible increase in the average price of shawarma up to 300 rubles ($2.36) and a 10-15% rise in the price of pizza and burgers, the result of an increase in selling prices of products such as meat, vegetables, fruit and eggs.

Well, considering how Russia imported $169 million worth of fertilizers, mainly from Belarus, Kazakhstan, Spain, Belgium, and Lithuania In 2021, this is no surprise. With the probable exception of the first two of those countries, exports of fertilizer have been halted. 

As the Russian government has introduced policies to increase the availability and use of pesticides in crop production, including increased imports, that will also drive prices upward; according to a report by Deutsche Welt, Russia has been increasing its domestic food production in recent years, with the aim of becoming self-sufficient, with new construction of manufacturing plants, and subsidies to farms for purchasing pesticides.

Gadgets are also up: iPhone prices rose an average of 32% in the first half of the year, and another 20% increase is expected by the end of the year. Prices of Samsung, Xiaomi and Readme products are also rising significantly. 

Tourism has become pricier: tour operators warn of a possible 10-30% price increase for winter vacations to popular destinations such as Egypt, UAE, Thailand, Maldives and Cuba. The cost of tours in Russia may also increase by 15% or more. Is this simply price-gouging, using the sanctions as an excuse, or are there other factors driving up prices?

That air travel has become more expensive is not surprising: Russian airlines prefer European or American jetliners, for obvious reasons, and now they find to their chagrin that they cannot buy spare parts for these maintenance-intensive airplanes directly, instead having to import on the sly through dummy companies, with a roundabout route through the Middle East or the PRC – which would naturally add on to already high prices.

Gas, automobiles and real estate has also been reported to have soared in price, bearing in mind that Russians are historically accustomed to shortages and long lineups for consumer goods.

2022 saw “Black Friday” – style fistfights and struggles for – get ready for it – SUGAR! Yep, the infamous “sugar wars” followed a shortage of sugar in Russia. That may well have been succeeded in turn by a miraculous recovery of citizens’ health – Russians historically being an unhealthy sort of folk, just like their enemies the Americans – since sugar can wreak damage on the body. Not just on teeth either: cancer tumors are said to love the taste of sugar, and feed on it merrily.

The above report should by the way be considered judiciously, as it came from one “Anton Gerashchenko” who describes himself as a “Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda”. Not the most objective sort of fellow, one would imagine.

OLD SOVIET JOKE ALERT!

(This is apropos to the subject at hand.)

The august Leonid Brezhnev, General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union from 1964 until his death in 1982, and Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet, was scheduled for a “photo-op” visit to a Moscow kindergarten.

Chairman Brezhnev, smiling broadly, greeted the sea of children’s faces and intoned “So very happy to see so many of you wonderful children.

“We are happy because in Russia the children wear beautiful clothes, have fine, delicious food to eat and lots of exciting toys to play with –”

His talk was cut short as a little girl in the front row suddenly started wailing, burst into tears and stomped her little feet.

Brezhnev looked shocked and the teachers, flustered, gathered around and shouted “Natasha! Natasha! What is the matter with you?”

Natasha, bawling: “I want to go to Russia!”

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President Isaias Afwerki met with the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin on July 28, for extensive discussions on bilateral ties and international matters of mutual importance.

At the meeting, President Isaias Afwerki elaborated on defunct policies of global hegemony, “containment”, and illicit sanctions by western powers.

President Isaias also underlined the importance of robust cooperation between Russia and the global south in the struggle against the defunct unipolar world order.

On bilateral cooperation, President Isaias Afwerki stated that Eritrea has finalized a comprehensive strategic plan with a focus on human capital.

President Vladimir Putin, for his part, expressed Russia’s readiness to enhance and expand relations and partnerships with Eritrea.

Present at the meeting were Foreign Minister Osman Saleh and Eritrea’s Ambassador to Russia, Mr. Petros Tsegay, from the Eritrean side; Mr. Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation; Mr. Mikhail Bogdanov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs; Mr. Dmitry Peskov, Press Secretary for the Russian President; and Mr. Igor Mozgo, Russian Ambassador to Eritrea, from the Russian side.

Similarly, President Isaias Afwerki and his delegation earlier met with the Russian Minister of Science and Higher Education, Valery Falkov, on cooperation in the sector by upgrading the bilateral agreement reached in 2018.

President Isaias also met and held talks with Igor Levitin, Aide to President Putin, on cooperation on wider trade logistics. The two sides also agreed to hold regular talks between their respective foreign ministers, the report added.

Moreover, President Isaias and his delegation met in the afternoon hours of July 29, with the Deputy Chairman of Russia’s State Duma, the Lower House of the Russian Parliament, Dmitry Savalyev.

Mr. Savalyev thanked Eritrea for its position on the Ukraine conflict and announced the forthcoming visit of the Duma delegation to Eritrea.

President Isaias Afwerki and his delegation also visited Spark Plant for Helicopter Repairs in the morning hours of July 29.

Source: African Business

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