In the presidential elections in Turkey in May, the political weights seemed to be clearly distributed: on the one hand , President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in power since 2003, and on the other, the opposition’s six-party alliance, which Erdogan’s 20-year reign now wants to end.
But then Muharrem Ince came into play. Ince had clearly lost to Erdogan in the 2018 election and then disappeared from the scene. Now he’s back and wants to be president at the second attempt.
Six very different parties have joined forces around the head of the social democratic party CHP, Kemal Kilicdaroglu , against Erdogan for the May 14 election . But Ince’s candidacy will make life harder for them. Political scientist Berk Esen of Sabanci University explains:
This is not good news for the opposition.
Berk Esen, political scientist
Ince could steal votes from the CHP and the smaller partner from the İyi Parti (Good Party).
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How candidate Ince once disappeared from the scene
Ince ran for the CHP himself in 2018 because the party believed at the time that the more moderate and reserved Kilicdaroglu would be less attractive to voters. Ince’s impassioned speeches and fierce personality, reminiscent of Erdogan’s style, drew crowds during the election campaign.
His supporters had high hopes for him – the greater the disappointment after the clear defeat against Erdogan in the first round. And instead of publicly acknowledging the victory of the incumbent, Ince fell silent, disappeared and just texted a journalist saying, “The man won.”
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The less than stylish departure made headlines in Turkey and caused Ince to lose popularity. He later failed in an attempt to oust Kilicdaroglu from the CHP leadership.
Ince is now chairman of the newly founded Memleket party (Fatherland). The party primarily appeals to secular nationalist voters – who, however, are also an important basis for Kilicdaroglu. When he submitted his candidacy to the electoral authorities, the 58-year-old was brimming with self-confidence:
The election will go to the second round and in the second round I will be elected with more than 60 percent of the votes.
Muharrem Ince
Presidential election: What chance does Ince have?
Political commentator Serkan Demirtas complains that Ince wants to present himself to voters as an alternative without really making it clear what he stands for.
He says he is against Erdogan and he is also against Kilicdaroglu, but what does he actually represent? We do not know it.
Serkan Demirtas
Most observers in Turkey currently share the view that any attempt by a lone fighter to defeat Erdogan will not only fail, but also damage the opposition alliance.
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Ince is currently scoring particularly well with younger voters who are tired of President Erdogan and who are not inspired by 74-year-old Kilicdaroglu, who calls himself the “silent force”. According to Esen, Kilicdaroglu is not a new face for her. The political scientist explains:
Ince seems particularly popular with Gen Z voters, who are easily swayed by anti-status quo candidates.
Berk Esen, political scientist
Erdogan’s opponents united in the opposition alliance are still trying to discreetly persuade Ince to withdraw from the race after all.
Emre Peker of the Eurasia Group says the question of whether Ince and the CHP “bury the hatchet” will be decisive for Kilicdaroglu’s chances in a second round.
Source: ZDF
