This weekend, Russian drones and scouts surveilling the front line just west of the ruins of Avdiivka, in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, observed something strange. Ukrainian trenches just east of the village of Ocheretyne, previously manned by soldiers from the Ukrainian army’s elite 47th Mechanized Brigade, were empty.

The village was undefended

Seizing the opportunity, the Russian army’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade raced several miles along the railroad threading west from Avdiivka and captured most of Ocheretyne—and potentially also Novobakhmutivka, the village south of Ocheretyne.

It’s the fastest penetration into Ukrainian territory by Russian forces in months—and it threatens to collapse Ukraine’s defensive line west of Avdiivka. A line that has held for months, but now has a deep and widening gap in it. “Pandora’s box is open,” Ukrainian analysis group Deep State commented.

To get a sense of how frightened Ukrainian commanders are right now, consider the brigade they rushed into the breach north and west of Ocheretyne: the 100th Mechanized Brigade. The brigade is one of the newest and most lightly-equipped brigades in the Ukrainian army—and seemingly unsuited for the kind of front-line triage commanders are asking of it.

The collapse in Ocheretyne reportedly isn’t the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s fault. That brigade—the main operator of Ukraine’s American-made armored vehicles—was following orders to withdraw from Ocheretyne in order to redeploy to the rear for a much-needed period of rest after spending nearly a year in combat.

The 115th Mechanized Brigade was supposed to take the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s place in Ocheretyne, seamlessly filling the same fighting positions with enough troops to maintain the integrity of the defensive line west of Avdiivka.

But something went wrong. According to Mykola Melnyk, the famed 47th Mechanized Brigade company commander who lost a leg during Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year, “certain units just fucked off.”

The 115th Mechanized Brigade’s failure to hold the line practically invited the Russian 30th Motor Rifle Brigade into Ocheretyne—and triggered a panicky response in Ukrainian headquarters. Commanders ordered the battle-weary 47th Mechanized Brigade to turn around and return to the front line. They also ordered the 100th Mechanized Brigade to counterattack.

The 100th Mechanized Brigade is a former territorial brigade—the equivalent of a U.S. Army National Guard unit—that the defense ministry in Kyiv upgraded to the active army in late March.

The 100th Mechanized Brigade isn’t inexperienced: its 2,000 or so troopers have seen action many times in Russia’s 26-month wider war on Ukraine. But the brigade lacks the heavy equipment—Western-made tanks, fighting vehicles and artillery—that gives more elite units such as the 47th Mechanized Brigade much of their combat power.

The 100th Mechanized Brigade fought hard, anyway, intercepting the Russian 30th Motor Rifle Brigade and other units from the Russian 41st Combined Arms Army as they attempted to advance toward the village of Prohres, another seven miles to the west along the same railroad linking Avdiivka to Ocheretyne. “The attempt to advance towards Prohres was stopped by a successful counterattack by the 100th Mechanized Brigade,” Deep State reported.

It’s unclear what might happen next in and around Ocheretyne. For now, Ukrainian troops “hold positions in the western part of the village and maintain fire control over its southern part,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted.

That the Ukrainians had to rush into a combat a comparatively weak brigade speaks to the paucity of Ukraine’s reserves west of Avdiivka, however. The Russians, for their part, are keeping an entire tank division, the 90th, in reserve around Avdiivka.

If the 90th Tank Division rolls into Ocheretyne before the Ukrainian eastern command mobilizes additional reinforcements, the Russian penetration could widen into a full-fledged breakthrough—one that could force tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops to retreat west to their next line of defenses.

For the Ukrainians, the best reason to be hopeful is the $1 billion in fresh munitions the United States rushed to Ukraine in the hours after the U.S Congress finally, after six months of delay, approved additional U.S. aid to Ukraine on Tuesday.

The Ukrainian brigades around Ocheretyne will need every bullet, shell and missile they can get. Especially the lightly-equipped 100th Mechanized Brigade.

Source: Forbes

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The businesses sanctioned are Alkhaleej Bank and Al-Fakher Advanced Works, controlled by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Zadna International, controlled by the Sudanese army, according to a US Treasury Department statement.

War broke out last April between the two forces, resulting in the devastation of wide swaths of the country, the killing of thousands of civilians, warnings of famine and the world’s largest internal displacement crisis.

The RSF are accused by the US of participating in an ethnic cleansing campaign in West Darfur, along with war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The army, which has carried out a widespread airstrike campaign, is also accused of war crimes by the US.

“The conflict in Sudan continues, in part, due to key individuals and entities that help fund the continuation of the violence,” said Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson.

Alkhaleej Bank is “an essential part of the RSF’s efforts to finance its operations” that received $50 million from the Central Bank of Sudan (CBoS) just before the war broke out, the Treasury Department said.

Holding company Alfakher was used to manage the RSF’s lucrative gold exports, its main source of financing to buy weapons.

Meanwhile, Zadna International was described as a “top revenue-earner” for the Sudanese army. The US Treasury Department said it continued to provide funding and was used for money-laundering.

The sanctions were imposed under a US executive order authorising sanctions on individuals who are destabilising Sudan and undermining the country’s democratic transition, the Treasury Department said.

Since the war began, the US has sanctioned the deputy head of the RSF, other major businesses owned by both sides, and other entities.

Source: The East African

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Begin text:

The Kingdom of Morocco and the United States of America co-hosted a Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) Africa Political Meeting and Outreach Event in Marrakesh, Morocco on January 31 – February 2, 2024. This meeting was co-chaired by the Director of the United Nations and International Organizations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, African Cooperation and Moroccan Expatriates, Mr. Redouane Houssaini, and U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins.

This meeting fulfilled a commitment made by Morocco at the PSI 20th Anniversary High-Level Political Meeting (HLPM) held in Jeju, Republic of Korea on May 30, 2023.

The Marrakesh event featured senior representatives of 35 countries from the international community, including 25 African States and 10 countries from the PSI Operational Experts Group.

Opening remarks were addressed by His Excellency Mr. Nasser Bourita, Minister of Foreign Affairs, African Cooperation and Moroccan Expatriates, highlighting the pivotal role of the African dimension in international cooperation efforts to face the challenges posed by global security which should be given significant consideration within the framework of the PSI vision and commitment of Morocco to continue its support to the PSI and cooperate with the U.S. to encourage more African states to endorse this initiative.

Under Secretary Jenkins also addressed the changing international security environment and new challenges to counterproliferation norms and activities.

This event presented an opportunity for the PSI-endorsing states to reiterate their commitment to countering of the proliferation of WMDs, their delivery systems, and related materials, and to commit to further working together within the PSI in order to effectively address these issues.

A large number of participants from African countries welcomed the meeting and showed interest in the Initiative and committed to report back and assess with all national stakeholders to consider endorsing the PSI.

One of the primary objectives of the event was to underscore the significance of South-South cooperation as a focal point, showcasing how nations within this framework can leverage their unique strengths and resources to address common challenges.

This meeting represented another opportunity to highlight the close strategic partnership between the United States and Morocco, within the strategic dialogue initiated in 2013, and accentuate the depth of this historic long-standing friendship while exploring ways to broaden its horizons towards a triangular cooperation, involving Africa, in matters of security.

The PSI-endorsing states and participating states:

Highlighted the benefits of PSI endorsement and provided an understanding of PSI frameworks and Critical Capabilities and Practices.

Acknowledged the security challenges inherent in the current context, encompassing both Africa and the global landscape.

Provided an overview of proliferation threats and trends, both globally and within Africa through briefings and panel presentations received by the attendees.

Acknowledged the importance of the PSI as a voluntary mechanism and flexible framework, compliant with international law and mechanisms, to effectively address this threat.

Explored the paramount significance of national capacity building and interdepartmental coordination in addressing complex challenges related to the detection and interception of nuclear and radiological materials.

The new endorsers of the PSI: Benin, Equatorial Guinea, Ghana, Togo, and Zambia, announced their formal endorsement of the PSI and the PSI Statement of Interdiction Principles.

Recognizing the gravity of the global security landscape, underscored the imperative for collaborative efforts on an international scale.

Demonstrated a shared commitment to fostering alliances, information-sharing, and coordinated actions to effectively address the complex challenges posed by the spread of WMDs.

Next Steps:

1. States that endorsed the PSI statement of Interdiction Principles at this meeting showed interest in participating in follow-up regional and sub-regional African events for new endorsers at a date and location to be determined.
2. The co-chairs suggested establishing a plan of action (workshops, training, operational cooperation) that will allow the new endorsing countries to reinforce their national capabilities to counter the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction. PSI-endorsing states committed to assisting new endorsers with additional training, education, and sharing best practices.
3. Morocco and the United States will continue to work closely with participating states to promote PSI in Africa.

Source: Mirage News

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Mr Blinken’s charm offensive comes as the administration sees an opportunity to invest in the region and strengthen relationships as Chinese and Russian influence rises.

He made his fourth trip to the continent since taking office, travelling to Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Angola.

The Biden administration has been adamant that it regards African countries as important partners for the future and key allies in the fight against extremists in the Sahel.

In Ivory Coast and Nigeria, Mr Blinken promoted US investments and announced $45 million in new funding for security, which has been threatened by terrorism and coups across the region in recent years.

“Cote d’Ivoire [Ivory Coast] is an essential partner for us and for other countries in the region that are trying to move forward,” Mr Blinken said next to Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara at the country’s presidential palace in Abidjan.

“We appreciate particularly the leadership shown by Cote d’Ivoire in countering extremism and violence.”

In July, Washington lost a key ally in Niger, a country in which it had invested heavily, when the military junta overthrew democratically elected president Mohamed Bazoum.

Coups in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have fractured the Economic Community of West Africa, an important economic driver for the region.

On Sunday, the three countries, which had each been suspended from the bloc after the coups, announced that they were officially leaving.

Russia has honed in on the Sahel as a region of opportunity, with the mercenary group Wagner maintaining a presence in Mali and Russian troops recently flying into Burkina Faso.

During his whirlwind tour, in which he slept in a different city every night, Mr Blinken sought to highlight Washington’s positive influence on the region and its deepening economic ties with countries.

In Angola, his last stop, he promoted more than $1 billion in US investments, including $900 million for solar energy projects and a $250 million investment in the Lobito rail corridor, an ambitious project that connects resource-rich central Africa to the Atlantic Ocean through the Angolan coast.

“Our relationship is stronger, it’s more consequential, it’s farther-reaching than at any point in our 30-year friendship,” Mr Blinken said while in Luanda.

The Lobito project is the biggest US investment in infrastructure on the continent in a generation.

“This project has genuinely transformative potential for this nation, for this region, and – I would argue – for the world,” Mr Blinken said next to Angolan Foreign Minister Tete Antonio.

The corridor, part of which is already operational, will allow critical minerals such as cobalt and copper to more easily reach global markets.

US officials said the investments are advancing the Biden administration’s climate goals by having “clean energy through solar” and diversifying US supply chain access.

“Africa has the lowest rail and road density in the world and the refurbishments, plus the additions, is addressing a major deficit on the continent and it redounds to the US brand, the US reliability and US leadership,” a US official said.

It also is helping the US to bolster a new relationship with Angola at a time when the country appears to be turning away from China and Russia, two longtime allies.

Angola emerged from three decades of civil war in 2002. Historically, it has looked to China for major infrastructure projects.

In the years after the devastating civil war, Angolan president Jose Eduardo dos Santos sought Chinese loans and investments to rebuild the country. Years of borrowing have left Angola heavily indebted to Beijing.

“Angola is not about to become a Kenya, a sort of pro-West stalwart,” said Ricardo Soares de Oliveira, a professor at the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford.

“But becoming closer to America does have the positive effect of diluting the overwhelming Chinese role in Angola, which the Angolans want to dilute.”

American officials insisted that US interest in the region was genuine and mutually beneficial, and rebuffed the idea that there was any geopolitical jostling.

For the better part of four decades, Angola was ruled by Mr do Santo. The current President, Joao Lourenco, appears to be cutting a different path, away from Russia and China.

Source: The National

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Nairobi has in the past fortnight hosted senior US intelligence and defence chiefs, including Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns and head of the Africa Command (Africom) General Michael Langley. Their visits, about whose outcomes the government kept mum, yielded pledges of security and intelligence cooperation. Gen Langley also visited Somalia and Djibouti, while the CIA boss toured Somalia and DR Congo.

This week, Kenya was the only Horn of Africa country to publicly endorse airstrikes on the Iran-backed Houthi, whose acts of targeting ships in the Red Sea are now categorised by the West as terrorism.

“These strikes were designed to disrupt and degrade the capability of the Houthis to continue their attacks on global trade and innocent mariners from around the world, while avoiding escalation,” said a statement by the White House on Wednesday.

“We condemn these attacks, and demand an end to them. We also underscore that those who supply the Houthis with the weapons to conduct these attacks are violating UN Security Council Resolution 2216 and international law. The January 22 international response to the continuing Houthi attacks demonstrated shared resolve to uphold navigational rights and freedoms, and to defend the lives of mariners from illegal and unjustifiable attacks.”

The statement was endorsed by the governments of Kenya, Guinea-Bissau, Albania, Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Netherlands, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Poland, Korea, Romania, UK, and US.

The Houthis were not initially considered a threat beyond their country. But since December, they have launched at least 30 attacks on commercial and naval ships passing through the Red Sea, ostensibly to retaliate for Israel’s war in Gaza against the Hamas militant group. Houthis have argued theirs is revenge for Israel’s atrocities on Palestinians.

While the Red Sea shipping route is crucial to Eastern African countries, shortening the importation times from Europe, the Horn of Africa states have steered clear of backing the counter-strikes. Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and Tanzania – all of whom may be affected by any maritime insecurity there — have chosen a neutral stance.

Kenya’s cooperation on the Houthi matter is meant to be an insurance policy against local piracy, a diplomatic source told The EastAfrican. But there are fears that it could attract the wrath of terror groups keen to raise their profile by appearing to side with the Palestinians.

Last week, the International Chamber of Commerce’s International Maritime Bureau advised shippers to remain vigilant as they transit waters off Somalia and the Gulf of Aden, as piracy remains a threat.

Attacks in the Red Sea mean ships reroute via the Gulf of Guinea to the southern tip of Africa, adding some 6,000km on their voyages, which brings in the importance of Guinea Bissau in securing that route.

The US considers Kenya an important and influential ally as “East Africa’s most dynamic economy”, which is “a growing regional business and financial hub”.

In 2018, Washington and Nairobi formally elevated their relations to a strategic partnership, prioritising five pillars of engagement: economic prosperity, trade, and investment; defence cooperation; democracy, governance, and civilian security; multilateral and regional issues; and public health cooperation.

In 2022, the two countries started negotiating the Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (Stip), which Kenya hopes will help foster growth and improve its business environment.

Nairobi, meanwhile, is availing itself of Washington’s power of oversight and management of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, to ease pressure on debt repayment and rescue the economy.

It has not been lost on observers that, around the period it was hosting the senior US officials, the IMF approved $684.7 million disbursement to Kenya to shore up its ability to repay its first Eurobond, which matures in June.

The new funds are part of the $941.2 million from the augmentation/expansion of resources under the fund’s multiyear arrangement with Kenya.

Kenya has lobbied for additional resources from the IMF since last year, citing heightened balance of payment needs from the upcoming outsized maturity amid difficulties in accessing alternative funding from the international capital markets.

Besides leveraging IMF funding, Kenya has been seeking additional concessional funding from other sources, including the World Bank, alongside syndicated loans.

Sources told The EastAfrican that Kenya has agreed to support the anti-Houthi operation for American support for its own maritime and local security apparatus. The US has been campaigning against any direct or indirect support for the Houthis, including through Iran.
But Washington has also been subtle about first seeking to dissuade Houthis off the terror cause.

On January 17, 2024, the US Department of State announced the designation of Ansarallah (Houthis) as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), effective February 16, 2024. It said the delayed implementation was to help “change behaviour” of Houthis, rather than punish them.

US former president Donald Trump’s administration had previously designated Houthis as a SDGT and as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO), but this labelling was reversed by President Joe Biden soon after he took power in February 2021, due to concerns that the measures could be an obstacle to humanitarian assistance reaching the Yemeni people.

On Thursday, the US and UK designated four Houthi military chiefs, Mohamed al-Atifi, Muhammad Fadl Abd al-Nabi, Muhammad Ali al-Qadiri and Muhammad Ahmad al-Talibi for targeting ships.

Americans have used influence, too, imposing a soft power of pledges, military support and financial backing for allies.

In Africa, only Kenya and Guinea-Bissau have publicly voiced support for aerial raids on Houthis. They have coincidentally suffered the pain of sea piracy in the past.

In Nairobi, officials publicly spoke of that military support from the US. Kenya’s Defence Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale, while not discussing the specific content of their meeting with Gen Langley said: “The US has been a critical partner in supporting Kenya’s quest in enhancing peace, security, and stability in the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes Region.”

“The US government has been playing a key role in the support of the construction of the Kenya Defence Forces’ (KDF’s) Counter Insurgency, Terrorism and Stability Operations (Citso) Centre and offering the KDF personnel training opportunities.”

On Tuesday this week, the US, UK and more than 20 of their allies launched strikes against Houthis, warning the strikes will go on until Houthis call off the attacks. In a statement, UK said 24 countries, including the US, Germany and Australia, conducted strikes on Monday against eight targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen in their bid to end the ongoing attacks in Red Sea.

For Kenya, the Houthis are not as a direct threat as the resurgence of piracy off the coast of Somalia with the threat of a rise in insurance premiums for shipping and hence the cost of importing goods via the Port of Mombasa.

A global naval coalition led by the US and the European Union almost wiped out piracy in the past decade. But four vessels have been attacked by pirates off Somalia since November 2023. Two of them were released while the other two are yet to be freed.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has vowed to keep hampering the ability of the Houthis to attack ships.

“We are not seeking a confrontation,” he told parliament Monday.

“We urge the Houthis and those who enable them to stop these illegal and unacceptable attacks.”

Meanwhile, the United Nations on Wednesday asked Houthi authorities to reconsider their decision to expel US and British nationals working for the world body in Yemen.

Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, confirmed that the UN had received communication from the Houthi, giving all US and British nationals a month to leave the areas under their control.

“Any request or requirement for UN staff to leave based solely on the nationality of that staff is inconsistent with the legal framework applicable to the UN,” said Dujarric. “It also impedes our ability to deliver on the mandate to support all of the people in Yemen. And we call on all the authorities in Yemen to ensure that our staff can continue to perform their functions on behalf of the UN.”

He said UN staff serve impartially and serve the flag of the United Nations and none other.

The spokesman refused to say how many US and British nationals are working for the United Nations in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

Source: The East African

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Blinken made his first stop in Cape Verde, a small island in West Africa, where he engaged Prime Minister Ulisses Correia e Silva in discussions and reiterated the US dedication to deepening and expanding its collaborations with Africa. Continuing his diplomatic journey, he then proceeded to Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and concluded his tour in Angola.

While Blicken, on his tour, touted the US as a crucial economic and security ally for Africa, particularly during times of regional and global challenges, analysts say that US foreign policy towards Africa has suggested that the continent may have been “pushed to the back burner.” Their assertions are not baseless.

At the US-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington in November 2022, President Joe Biden made commitments to support democracy in Africa and announced his endorsement for a permanent seat for the African Union at the Group of 20. Biden also promised to visit the continent but that dream never materialised as Washington was preoccupied with a host of global challenges, such as the war in Gaza and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Addressing questions about Biden’s unsuccessful visit during an interview in Nigeria, Blinken defended the president by saying, “It is just the opposite. The President very much wants to come to Africa. We have [had] 17 cabinet-level or department-level officials come since the Africa Leaders Summit.”

US Counterproductive Counter-terrorism Fight

In Abidjan, the capital of Ivory Coast, Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledged USD 45 million to bolster security along the West African coast. This commitment extends the funding for an ongoing program in the region, bringing the total to USD 300 million. Blinken commended the Ivorian military for their counterinsurgency efforts in combating armed groups, acknowledging the difficulty of the region’s location between Mali and Burkina Faso and recognizing hotspots for violence in the Sahel.

For over two decades, the US has made consistent efforts to enhance security and promote democracy, particularly in the Sahel. However, despite these investments, terrorism persists, leading to frequent coups that pose a continuous threat to the stability of the continent.

Last year saw President Mohamed Bazoum of the Niger Republic–a crucial US ally–forcibly ousted from power by disgruntled US-trained military officers. This coup dealt a significant blow to Niger’s sprouting democracy, as President Bazoum had ascended to power through the country’s first democratic elections. Moreover, it marked a setback to the longstanding US endeavours to foster democracy in the Sahel.

Facing international pressure, the coup plotters justified their actions by pointing to President Bazoum’s perceived inability to effectively address the threat of insurgency in the country, despite substantial investments by the US in regional security.

Since 2012, the US has allocated more than USD 500 million in security assistance to Niger, positioning it as the leading recipient of US military aid in West Africa and the second-highest in sub-Saharan Africa.

In addition to having troops on the ground, the US currently operates a drone base in sub-Saharan Africa, a USD 100 million facility based in Agadez. However, despite these advancements, counterinsurgency operations funded by taxpayers have given rise to splinter groups associated with jihadist militancy, causing distress in villages and towns.

Experts attribute the insurgency in Sub-Saharan Africa to the US-led invasion of Libya, which failed to bring stability to the country and resulted in the proliferation of arms and violent groups across the region when foreign fighters, especially the Turareg rebels loyal to Libya’s dictator, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, fled the country after his death.

A recent report by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, a US defense department research institution, indicates that the Sahel experienced the largest increase in violent events linked to militant Islamists in the past year compared to any other region in Africa, with 2,737 violent events. The report notes that attacks linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel have surged by 3,500% since 2016.

“If the US had not destabilised Libya, there is no way Nigeria, Mali, Niger, Chad, and Burkina Faso would have been in chaos,” argues Zainab Dabo, a Nigerian-based political analyst.

“With military takeovers in [West Africa], along with a general distrust for the West, Blinken is here to offer an irresistible package of promises in a bid to remain relevant, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where Russia is gaining influence,” she added.

For the US, Russia’s expanding influence in Africa is a cause for worry. The rivalry between the two nations intensified significantly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia justified its actions by citing the US-led NATO expansion in Ukraine, which it deemed a threat. Although the US has refrained from direct involvement in the conflict, it has provided substantial financial and military assistance to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Russia are escalating in Africa. This is evident as coup plotters, many of whom have undergone military training in the US, are now ditching the West to seek military support from the Russian-backed private military Wagner group in their efforts to combat terrorism. Russia is also actively seeking to gain influence in Africa and challenge the dominance of the dollar through the BRICS.

However, while the Biden administration is considering designating the Wagner Group, a Russian group, as a terrorist organisation for its human rights violations, the US has always shied away from its own misdeeds in Africa.

US military partnerships on the continent have been marred by a record of human rights abuses, fostering distrust of Western influence.

In Nigeria, where Blicken promised support for improved security, a US-Nigerian airstrike in 2017 hit a refugee camp in Raan, near the Cameroon border, killing at least 115. Until today, no one has been held accountable for the massacre, and the victims have not gotten justice.

In Somalia, where the US military has conducted numerous airstrikes against the Islamic Jihad group Al-Shabaab for more than a decade, civilian casualties have become inevitable, many leaving family members in agony and with no hope of justice.

In 2020, Amnesty International slammed the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) for killing a woman and a young child in an airstrike in Somalia. Despite the families of the victims of this strike contacting the US Mission to Somalia, Amnesty International reported that neither US diplomatic staff nor AFRICOM had reached out to them to offer reparation.

US, China, Russia and the Scramble for Africa

According to Frank Tietie, a lawyer and human rights activist in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital, Blinken’s visit coincides with a period when America’s influence is perceived to be at a low point in the recent scramble for Africa. Tietie maintains that the US needs to go beyond merely advocating for democracy and should actively match China and Russia’s efforts by deploying both financial and developmental resources.Close

Since 2003, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa has experienced a substantial increase, rising from a modest USD 74.8 million in 2003 to USD 5.4 billion in 2018. Although it saw a decline to USD 2.7 billion in 2019, the trend reversed, despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, with a resurgence to USD 4.2 billion in 2020. However, concerns arise regarding China’s infrastructural investments and over USD 170 billion worth of loans in Africa, which are perceived as exploitative, given the expectation of natural resources in exchange.

During a meeting with President João Lourenço of Angola, Blinken praised the advancements in one of the US’s most significant investments in Africa: the construction of the Lobito Corridor, a crucial rail link for metals exports from the central African Copper Belt. However, for Tietie, who holds that the US is bent on containing the influence of Russia and China in Africa, such developments are insufficient.

“The gospel of democracy by the Americans [in Africa] has not been able to match the alluring and tantalising presence of the Chinese with their loans and offer to exploit natural resources in exchange for cash. The Americans must do more than ordinary promises, many of which we have had in the past that have not translated to growth and development for African countries,” Tietie told IPS.

For Dabo, Africa, which she described as “the land of opportunities,” will keep being exploited for its natural resources by the US and China if the US does not put its capacities to good use.

Source: All Africa

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Former US President Donald Trump has emerged as the Republican front-runner for November’s 2024 US presidential election. On the streets of Ghana’s capital, Accra, opinions vary on whether Trump or President Joe Biden should be the winner.

Ghanaian student Abigail Grift does not want a second Trump term, telling DW, “President Joe Biden is the better choice for this office,” after Trump was found guilty of defaming magazine writer E. Jean Carroll.

Grift also cited two impeachment trials, ending in Trump’s acquittal, as reasons to favor another Biden presidency. 

Samuel Ofoso, on the other hand, would be happy if Trump were reelected.

“Because of his vision for Africa,” he told DW, pointing out that Trump helped with infrastructure projects and political relations between the African continent and the US during his time in office. 

Ofoso suggested that Biden is “only pushing the LGBTQ+ agenda,” which he said was “not a good thing for Africa.”

Biden’s administration has sought to strengthen the rights of people who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer in its economic and development cooperation policy.

Concerns about Trump’s return

Etse Sikanku, a senior lecturer at Accra’s University of Media, Arts and Communication, told DW, “Africa should be concerned about the possible return of Donald Trump to the presidency.”

With regard to the fundamental ideology at the heart of Trump’s policies, Sikanku said, “This is someone who believes in isolationism in every respect. He looks more inwards.”

Biden is more global, the analyst said, adding that he stands more for cooperation and partnership, while Trump does not favor international cooperation with Africa.

Sikanku also referred to Trump’s 2018 widely reported use of derogatory language to describe some parts of Africa while speaking against immigration from these countries. 

“He doesn’t treat the continent with respect, undermines democratic ideals … what can you expect?” Sikanku said. Unlike his four predecessors, Trump did not visit the continent once during his one term in office.

Retreat inwards

Sikanku believes the US will withdraw from international affairs should Trump regain the presidency. 

Priyal Singh, an analyst from the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, echoed that sentiment, suggesting that “if Trump won the next election, we would see a kind of reversion back to that earlier period of US foreign policy under Trump, and that is weakening the global multilateral system.”

“This would not be beneficial for many African countries that are disproportionately dependent on the functioning of this very system,” Singh told DW.

However, South African political analyst Daniel Silke believes that Washington’s focus on geostrategy and efforts to invest in parts of the continent and strengthen diplomatic ties in Africa would continue — regardless of who wins the White House.

Geostrategic interests

Silke said that despite Trump’s “America first” rhetoric, the world demands action from the US. The growing influence of China, Russia and other countries would force Trump and his administration to be less isolationist than many would think, Silke added.

After all, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) — a program launched by former US President Bill Clinton in 2000 that provides eligible countries from Africa with tariff-free access to US markets — continues to carry weight. 

The list of AGOA products includes raw materials, textile products and clothing. The trade agreement, extended until 2025, grants tariff relief for imports from more than 30 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. According to the UN Comtrade database, the US was the second most important export destination for goods from South Africa in 2022 after China, with just under 9%. 

From a security perspective, Silke argued that the United States remains an essential pillar for many countries in the fight against insurgencies in many African countries, particularly in West and East Africa.

According to Silke, the battle for influence in Africa, the rights to mine minerals, and the expansion of technologies will continue.

“If there is one incentive for Trump to withdraw less and cooperate more with Africa, it is the rising power of China.”

Tough on immigration but soft on climate change

The African continent is geopolitically relevant, said Charles Martin-Shields, a senior researcher from the Bonn-base think tank German Institute of Development and Sustainability.

However, he added that Trump is not expected to expand his foreign and development policy. Martin-Shields told DW that Trump would most likely focus on domestic policy and migration, particularly at the Mexican border, and ignore climate change. 

This could also have an impact on African countries. Shortly after taking office in 2021, Biden lifted the entry bans issued by Trump on countries with a Muslim-majority population.

According to Martin-Shields, measures against climate change are currently part of the White House’s strategy.

For the first time, according to Martin-Shields, an American president is taking responsibility for the fact that the US and other powerful countries have emitted far more CO2 than countries in Africa and the equatorial regions. Experts widely agree that poorer countries are disproportionately affected by climate change.

Source: DW

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Brussels (08/11 – 50)

On March 20, the IMF approved a $3 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to support Sri Lanka amid its economic crisis. The approval is expected to pave the way for other financial institutions to extend support to the bankrupt South Asian country. IMF program was made possible largely due to the untiring efforts of the President Ranil Wickremesinghe.

The IMF links financial assistance to a country to policy reform, a conditionality that usually imposes political as well as economic changes in the recipient nation. The logic behind IMF conditionality is multifold. It is supposed to prevent moral hazard by governments that receive loans. These conditions allow the IMF to monitor the behavior of the recipient states and allegedly promote best practices and good governance.

Sri Lanka has been to the IMF 16 times before; five of these since 2000. The full amount of the IMF loan was not disbursed on six occasions because Sri Lanka did not fully comply with the conditions of the loans. This included the previous EFF in 2016, when the conditions imposed by the IMF built additional pressure on the domestic economy. There has been much skepticism about Sri Lanka adhering to the more stringent IMF conditions this time around.

Despite the skepticism that prevails among journalists and economists, the IMF is very happy about the progress Sri Lanka is making on the commitments it made as a part of the IMF’s four-year EFF to the country.

An IMF delegation, which was in Colombo recently to assess the progress of the agreement, is optimistic. IMF Director of Asia and Pacific Department Krishna Srinivasan told a press conference in Colombo on May 15 that the Sri Lankan government has shown “commitment to the reform effort” that is a part of the agreement with the IMF.  He added that the “authorities are making good faith efforts to negotiate with all the creditors, both private creditors and official creditors.”

Ranil Wickremesinghe took over as President of Sri Lanka in July 2022 when the country was in the middle of its worst economic and political crisis since independence in 1948. On March 20, 2023, the IMF approved a $3 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to support Sri Lanka amid its economic crisis.

Peter Breuer, IMF’s Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka, Asia, and Pacific Department said they “see things developing more or less in line with expectations.”

Srinivasan added that Sri Lanka had to complete a number of prior actions before the IMF approved its bailout package. These actions were extensive and required a significant commitment from the Sri Lankan government.

Among these are cost-reflective of a number of goods and services that the government had subsidized for decades.  Sarwat Jahan, the IMF Resident Representative in Sri Lanka said the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) and Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) would have to recover their costs until the end of the IMF program.

The government met all these requirements, which shows that they are serious about implementing the reforms necessary to address the country’s economic crisis, Srinivasan said.

The conditions attached to IMF loans often involve actions aimed at discontinuing industry subsidies, avoiding exchange rate manipulation, adjusting budget priorities, and regulating wage levels. Leaders, who face diverse political limitations, differ in their willingness to engage in an agreement with the IMF and make compromises in these four areas.

Considering that IMF loan conditionality agreements usually involve implementing fiscal austerity measures, leaders with larger winning coalitions will encounter more challenges when attempting to negotiate an agreement for IMF financing.

On the other hand, when a regime maintains power through a narrower network of closely-connected supporters, he or she finds it easier to enter into an agreement with the IMF.

Miles Kahler, a senior fellow for global governance at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, DC, in his 1993 book chapter titled “Bargaining with the IMF: Two-Level Strategies and Developing Countries,” outlines two key aspects of domestic politics that influence the process of loan negotiations: firstly, the degree to which a technocratic elite is insulated from economic interests, and secondly, the frequency with which elites face political challenges like elections.

Another factor that can impede the formation of a loan agreement is the presence of multiple veto actors, such as a separation of powers or the existence of multiparty governing coalitions.

Kahler says that when a country has a higher number of veto actors capable of obstructing a loan agreement, the scope of domestic political consensus becomes narrower, resulting in increased negotiation costs for the IMF. Typically, the count of veto actors is determined by assessing the number of parties in a government coalition in countries where genuine political competition exists.

This explains why it was extremely difficult for former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who came into power through a coalition of populism and with the support of a number of interest groups, from big businesses to professional associations, to enter into negotiations with the IMF.

On the other hand, Wickremesinghe is the head of the United National Party, a political party that obtained around 250,000 votes from 15 million eligible voters. He has one MP in Parliament, Wajira Abeywardana, who is a staunch loyalist. Wickremesinghe is backed in parliament by the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), whose MPs depend on him for political survival and would vote for any legislation that he brings forth.

Sri Lankan legislators are entitled to several perks at the end of the full tenure of five years and most of the SLPP MPs that back Wickremesinghe are adamant on completing their terms. Wickremesinghe has also indicated that there will be no elections until the economy is stabilized and it is likely that the first election Sri Lankans will see is a presidential election, probably in 2024.

Therefore, Wickremesinghe can implement the IMF recommendations completely, as he is not answerable to any political coalition or interest groups. Neither does he face an election. Wickremesinghe’s personal ideology also aligns with that of the IMF. It is unlikely that these factors were ignored by the IMF when the loan was approved and when they evaluate whether Sri Lanka will adhere to IMF conditionalities.

Source

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France and the United Kingdom (UK) have jointly made a request in favour of Sri Lanka to the court of the Southern District of New York, for a six-month freeze on any litigation in the Hamilton Reserve Bank case until Sri Lanka’s external debt restructuring is completed, the Financial Times reported.

Accordingly, last week the two countries filed a joint “amicus curiae” to the New York judge hearing the case, arguing in favour of Sri Lanka’s request for a six-month freeze on any litigation.

The co-signatories in their “amicus curiae” want the judge to grant Sri Lanka the six-month stay it has requested, because they worry that the lawsuit by Hamilton Reserve Bank/Benjamin Wey could wreck ongoing restructuring talks.

France and UK have jointly made a request to the court of the Southern District of New York, for a six-month freeze on any litigation in the Hamilton Reserve Bank case until Sri Lanka’s external debt restructuring is completed.

“A judgement in favour of the plaintiff before the completion of the debt restructuring process would risk disrupting the ongoing negotiations by creating an incentive for holdout creditors, thereby jeopardising the comparability of treatment between different categories of creditors,” the filing said.

It also said that the relevant principle is at the core of all sovereign debt restructuring processes, as it is key to securing the consent of all creditors, and that disruption would lead to delays in the negotiations, delaying the cash disbursement by the International Monetary Fund to the debtor country and resulting in significant costs for Sri Lanka and the official creditors’ taxpayers.

France is naturally interested in the Sri Lanka lawsuit as it hosts the so-called Paris Club, where government-to-government debts are restructured. The UK is part of the Paris Club but presumably cosigned the amicus brief because it historically oversaw the London Club, the less formal group for private creditors to negotiate with sovereign borrowers.

Last month, the Financial Times also reported that the United States (US) Government has also intervened in the matter where “the US is actively considering whether to file a Statement of Interest with respect to the pending motion to stay”.

The Hamilton Reserve Bank vs. Government of Sri Lanka case was filed in June 2022 after Sri Lanka declared bankruptcy and defaulted on $ 1 billion of this particular bond issue, of which Hamilton Reserve Bank holds $ 250 million.

Source : The Morning

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London (05/11 – 44.44)

Benjamin Wey, a Chinese-American financier, founder of Fintech Holdings and a history of legal trouble, is suing Sri Lanka for $250 million. Wey claims that he was assured by Sri Lanka’s central bank governor that the country would repay a $250 million bond. However, Sri Lanka defaulted on the bond in April 2022.

Wey is seeking to collect the full amount of the bond, plus interest. He has filed a lawsuit in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York.

The lawsuit is a major setback for Sri Lanka, which is already facing a severe economic crisis. The country is struggling to repay its debts, and the lawsuit could make it even more difficult to secure a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The US government has intervened in the lawsuit, and it is unclear how the case will be resolved. However, it is likely to drag on for several years, and it could further destabilize Sri Lanka’s economy.

Notorious financier, Benjamin Wey wants to collect from Sri Lanka, the full amount of the $250 million bond plus interest. He has filed a lawsuit in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York.

Wey is a controversial figure. He was arrested in 2015 on charges of fraud, but the charges were dropped. He was also sued for sexual harassment, and he settled the case for $5.65 million.

Wey is the founder of Fintech Holdings, a holding company that owns several businesses, including Hamilton Reserve Bank (HRB). HRB is the entity that is suing Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka is facing a severe economic crisis. The country is struggling to repay its debts, and it has been forced to default on several bonds. The crisis has led to widespread shortages of food, fuel, and other essential goods.

The IMF has offered to bail out Sri Lanka, but the government has been slow to agree to the IMF’s terms. The lawsuit filed by Wey could further complicate the negotiations with the IMF.

It is unclear how the lawsuit will be resolved. However, it is likely to drag on for several years. The case is complex, and there are many legal issues that need to be resolved.

The lawsuit could also have a significant impact on Sri Lanka’s economy. If Wey is successful, it could force the country to default on even more debt.

This could further destabilize the economy and make it even more difficult for Sri Lanka to recover from the crisis.

The lawsuit is a major setback for Sri Lanka, but it is also a test of the country’s legal system. If Sri Lanka is able to defend itself against the lawsuit, it will send a message to other investors that the country is a safe place to do business.

The outcome of the lawsuit will also have implications for the IMF. If the IMF is seen as being unable to protect its borrowers from predatory lawsuits, it could discourage other countries from seeking bailouts from the IMF.

The lawsuit is a complex and far-reaching case. It will be interesting to see how it is resolved and what impact it has on Sri Lanka, the IMF, and the global economy.

Source : Lanka News Line

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