This weekend, Russian drones and scouts surveilling the front line just west of the ruins of Avdiivka, in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, observed something strange. Ukrainian trenches just east of the village of Ocheretyne, previously manned by soldiers from the Ukrainian army’s elite 47th Mechanized Brigade, were empty.

The village was undefended

Seizing the opportunity, the Russian army’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade raced several miles along the railroad threading west from Avdiivka and captured most of Ocheretyne—and potentially also Novobakhmutivka, the village south of Ocheretyne.

It’s the fastest penetration into Ukrainian territory by Russian forces in months—and it threatens to collapse Ukraine’s defensive line west of Avdiivka. A line that has held for months, but now has a deep and widening gap in it. “Pandora’s box is open,” Ukrainian analysis group Deep State commented.

To get a sense of how frightened Ukrainian commanders are right now, consider the brigade they rushed into the breach north and west of Ocheretyne: the 100th Mechanized Brigade. The brigade is one of the newest and most lightly-equipped brigades in the Ukrainian army—and seemingly unsuited for the kind of front-line triage commanders are asking of it.

The collapse in Ocheretyne reportedly isn’t the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s fault. That brigade—the main operator of Ukraine’s American-made armored vehicles—was following orders to withdraw from Ocheretyne in order to redeploy to the rear for a much-needed period of rest after spending nearly a year in combat.

The 115th Mechanized Brigade was supposed to take the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s place in Ocheretyne, seamlessly filling the same fighting positions with enough troops to maintain the integrity of the defensive line west of Avdiivka.

But something went wrong. According to Mykola Melnyk, the famed 47th Mechanized Brigade company commander who lost a leg during Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year, “certain units just fucked off.”

The 115th Mechanized Brigade’s failure to hold the line practically invited the Russian 30th Motor Rifle Brigade into Ocheretyne—and triggered a panicky response in Ukrainian headquarters. Commanders ordered the battle-weary 47th Mechanized Brigade to turn around and return to the front line. They also ordered the 100th Mechanized Brigade to counterattack.

The 100th Mechanized Brigade is a former territorial brigade—the equivalent of a U.S. Army National Guard unit—that the defense ministry in Kyiv upgraded to the active army in late March.

The 100th Mechanized Brigade isn’t inexperienced: its 2,000 or so troopers have seen action many times in Russia’s 26-month wider war on Ukraine. But the brigade lacks the heavy equipment—Western-made tanks, fighting vehicles and artillery—that gives more elite units such as the 47th Mechanized Brigade much of their combat power.

The 100th Mechanized Brigade fought hard, anyway, intercepting the Russian 30th Motor Rifle Brigade and other units from the Russian 41st Combined Arms Army as they attempted to advance toward the village of Prohres, another seven miles to the west along the same railroad linking Avdiivka to Ocheretyne. “The attempt to advance towards Prohres was stopped by a successful counterattack by the 100th Mechanized Brigade,” Deep State reported.

It’s unclear what might happen next in and around Ocheretyne. For now, Ukrainian troops “hold positions in the western part of the village and maintain fire control over its southern part,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted.

That the Ukrainians had to rush into a combat a comparatively weak brigade speaks to the paucity of Ukraine’s reserves west of Avdiivka, however. The Russians, for their part, are keeping an entire tank division, the 90th, in reserve around Avdiivka.

If the 90th Tank Division rolls into Ocheretyne before the Ukrainian eastern command mobilizes additional reinforcements, the Russian penetration could widen into a full-fledged breakthrough—one that could force tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops to retreat west to their next line of defenses.

For the Ukrainians, the best reason to be hopeful is the $1 billion in fresh munitions the United States rushed to Ukraine in the hours after the U.S Congress finally, after six months of delay, approved additional U.S. aid to Ukraine on Tuesday.

The Ukrainian brigades around Ocheretyne will need every bullet, shell and missile they can get. Especially the lightly-equipped 100th Mechanized Brigade.

Source: Forbes

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The basic question was simple, Are We at War? Will Russia win? What’s the consequence for Europe if Russia wins? What is the European Union willingness to defend the Ukraine and willingness to mobilize Europe to go to war? If we are at war, then what is the strategy? How do we win?

The illustrious group agreed, if we are at war that than in cyber, we are at war. Cyberwars have no beginning and no end. Cyber has no boundary.

But besides cyber the war in the trenches continues, casualties on both sides are piling up. A culture of strategic exhaustion is adopted by both sides. This is neither new nor revolutionary. New is the tactical glass battlefield. Both sides see what the other side is planning. Deception does again become important. The killing becomes routine sort of a mechanical, tragic but a sideshow. We are at war.

Since we are now accepting war is the currency of today, what is the strategy for the near-term future? The lunch group conclusion is that four main strategies apply.

We Are At War!

Accepting Europeans facing a peer adversary with a history of violence, brutality, violations of human rights and disregard for the protection of culture and its humanity. The consequence of Russia beating the Ukraine is a strategic defeat for the European idea. The concept of war is abstract for Europeans. It’s bizarre. It is violent, destructive, and revolting to the senses. However, it must be done. As it was done to destroy the German war machine the Russian needs defeating. A war of attrition must be applied.

Beat Russia!

…and its allies near and far. Decisive and strategic. The strategy is simple. The objective out of textbooks. The attacker must be defeated. On all fronts. Wherever the Russians are a threat, the Russians must be defeated. The Russian nuclear fleet must be scuttled. The Airforce must be destroyed. Strategic commando operations must cripple the defense industry. No more hiding behind the Ural, out of reach. The Russian army is within reach!

The Ukrainian foreign minister said recently, ‘Every city, village, town the Ukrainian army surrenders is closer to your homes. Peace in Europe is over!’ The Russians must be beaten!

Russian Surrenders!

We except the surrender of the Russian forces. Unconditionally and immediate. A process of returning the territories occupied will be agreed on. A conditional process of surrendering of the war cabinet and incorporation of a peaceful transition will be initiated. Peace returns. But Russia must be defeated!

What’s Next?

The current conditions are closely watched by near peer rising challengers to the new hegemon, the European Union. The United States is largely a subservient client state of Europe and in the orbit of China, Turkey, with emerging Africa and states in Asia.

The United States are embroidered in an ideological dispute between the Republican and the Democratic parties for years to come. The political climate is a mouth service and serves the U.S. interest first and foremost. The newly rise of a new player on the scene is seen with mistrust within Washington power circles and Russians playbook operations. To off balance the distrust for Kyiv is bizarrely matched with Russian ambitions to bring the U.S. power circles closer to Moscow. If the Trump administration beliefs he brings ‘peace in our times’ he is mistaken.

However, the power brokers in Washington forget foreign relationships are born out of necessity rather than ambitions. Hence regardless of who is on the lever of power in the U.S. congress the long term relations with the Russian Federation are determined in a bilateral fashion.

We are on the verge of a multi-conflict ranging across Europe, embattling Asia, unhinging Africa. The evil forces may not be as evident as they are present, but the ideological battle is present. For years forces of moderation in the Islamic world gave lip services to the moderate European or American forces. Now a battle between good and evil is emerging.

by Marc Dubois

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Brussels (22/2 – 50)

The European Union’s plan to implement the EU Hybrid Toolbox (EUHT), which was launched last year, has received supports from the EU Parliament and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

The EUHT was launched in June 2022 with the intention to gather all civilian and military instruments that can be employed to counter hybrid threats. Hybrid threats combine military and non-military as well as covert and overt means, including disinformation, cyber-attacks, economic pressure, deployment of irregular armed groups and use of regular forces.

In 2016, the elections in the United States were manipulated by a foreign state actor through targeted propaganda and the leaking of hacked material that compromised one of the presidential candidates. In the same year, the British referendum on remaining in the European Union was also targeted by sophisticated propaganda efforts.

The recent European Parliament resolution supports the implementation of the common security and defence policy – annual report 2022, was issued on January 18. The parliament meeting’s notes state that there is a new urgency to boosting EU security and defence capabilities, including building on the unprecedented support for Ukraine which was most notably through the European Peace Facility (EPF) and ensuring complementarity with NATO. The European Parliament noted that on December 12, 2022, the Foreign Affairs Council decided to increase the overall financial ceiling of the EPF by EUR 2 billion in 2023, with the possibility of a further increase at a later stage.

The EU Council has initially intended to have the EUHT operationalization by the end of 2022 as the conflict in Ukraine demonstrated the importance of having a coordinated reaction capability to counter hybrid campaigns and is likely to provide the momentum to bring the development of the EUHT to fruition.

Russia’s hybrid aggression makes it necessary to design the defence of a free Europe in a comprehensive and multifaceted manner incorporating all critical areas, from the improvement of traditional military capacities to the protection of critical civilian infrastructure, supply chains and energy facilities, as well as the active fight against disinformation and cybersecurity threats. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has also underlined the lack of investment in security and defence in numerous EU and NATO Member States.

Having deployed thousands of additional defensive land, air, and maritime forces to its eastern flank, NATO also supports the issuance of the EU Hybrid Toolbox, stating that its allies face threats and challenges from both state and non-state actors who use hybrid activities to target political institutions, influence public opinion and undermine the security of NATO citizens. NATO is also helping to coordinate requests for assistance on behalf of Ukraine, where the explosion damaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines was a targeted attack against the EU’s critical infrastructure.

NATO cited that hybrid methods of warfare, including propaganda, deception, sabotage and other non-military tactics, have been used to destabilize adversaries. However, in the recent years, the attacks have seen more speed, scale and intensity, due to the rapid technological change and global interconnectivity.

The EU already have many options for the EU Hybrid Toolbox implementation, such as the Cyber Diplomacy Toolbox, but the main challenge will be to enable a fast and coherent response. The EU Hybrid Toolbox would allow hybrid threats to be dealt with in a coordinated fashion with the full force of the EU’s power as soon as possible rather than when they have turned into a full-fledged crisis. This would also position the EU more strongly as a global partner for countering attacks on the international order.

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Mukhtar Ablyazov, Kazakhstan

New York (15 December 2022 – 33).

Mukhtar Ablyazov, a Kazakhstan citizen, was found guilty of embezzlement and money laundering in the U.S. Court for $218 million against BTA Bank. Following a three-week trial, a jury of four men and four women in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York against Mukhtar Ablyazov.

Today issued a verdict in favor of BTA Bank on all claims against Triadou SPV S.A. The jury awarded BTA more than $100 million in damages with interest accrued since mid-2013, bringing the total judgment to more than $218 million. The Honorable John G. Koeltl, U.S. District Judge for the Southern District of New York, presided over the trial and accepted today’s verdict.

The trial, which began on November 29, 2022, was the first time the BTA has presented evidence of a large-scale fraud and money laundering scheme orchestrated by Mukhtar Ablyazov in an adversarial proceeding. Ablyazov’s multibillion-dollar embezzlement led to the nationalization of the bank, costing taxpayers billions of dollars.

The defendant, Triadou SPV, is a shell company created and controlled by Ablyazov’s son-in-law, Ilyas Khrapunov, which received more than $70 million stolen from BTA, which it invested in real estate in New York and other US cities. Triadou actively litigated for more than seven years while the case was pending and presented its defense to the jury at trial.

During the approximately three-week trial, the jury heard testimony from a variety of witnesses, including former employees of UKB-6, the BTA unit during Ablyazov’s tenure responsible for the fraud, as well as American investors who dealt with the stolen funds, individuals involved in the money laundering scheme, and various experts in forensic accounting, fraud and money laundering, and handwriting analysis.

The jury also heard testimonies from key co-conspirators, including Gennady Petelin, who appeared as the legitimate source of Triadou funds, Ilyas Khrapunov, who controlled Triadou’s investments, and Mukhtar Ablyazov himself.

Evidence incriminating Ablyazov (including the founding documents with his signatures) obtained by the General Prosecutor’s Office of the Republic of Kazakhstan from the Isle of Man and the UAE as part of international legal assistance was disclosed to the jury.

As a result, in reaching a verdict in favor of BTA today, the jury concluded that Triadou knowingly laundered the money Ablyazov stole from BTA.

Triadou appeared at trial through Philippe Glatz, a Swiss-Brazilian businessman who claims to have bought Triadou’s parent company in 2013 from the Khrapunov family.

Glatz testified for three days and was questioned at length by an American BTA attorney from the law firm Boies Schiller Flexner LLP.

During the questioning, Glatz was forced to admit that he bought the parent company of Triadou without ever speaking to its alleged owners; that his alleged due diligence on the parent company of Triadou did not include any written report on Triadou’s investments; that he worked closely with a Dubai-based service provider who was responsible for money laundering schemes for Ilyas Khrapunov; and that he allowed Ilyas Khrapunov to continue running Triadou long after the alleged sale.

Matthew L. Schwartz, managing partner of Boies Schiller Flexner LLP and a BTA attorney, noted the following: “For the first time in more than a decade of BTA debt collection worldwide, this case gave the jury the opportunity to hear testimony directly from the perpetrators behind the collusion.

Mukhtar Ablyazov was found guilty unanimously by jury of defrauding BTA and BTA was awarded substantial damages.

John G. Koeltl, U.S. District Judge for the Southern District of New York, presided over the trial and accepted today’s verdict. The jury awarded BTA more than $100 million in damages with interest accrued since mid-2013.

“We are honored that we were able to present this evidence to the U.S. jury, and we are very pleased with the verdict in favor of our client, which should result in more than $200 million in damages.  We thank the jury for their careful consideration of the evidence.” The proceedings in New York, on behalf of BTA and the Ministry of Justice of Kazakhstan (on behalf of the Almaty City Akimat), stretched over seven years ago against Mukhtar Ablyazov and his criminal associates for laundering stolen money in the United States. During the trial, the BTA and the DOJ successfully demonstrated that Mukhtar Ablyazov, Ilyas Khrapunov and former Almaty Akim, Viktor Khrapunov disobeyed court orders, destroyed evidence and refused to provide required information.

As a result, numerous penalty orders were entered against Mr. Ablyazov and Mr. Khrapunov by various judges of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, ultimately holding Mr. Ablyazov liable.

Nevertheless, the BTA and DOJ gathered additional substantial evidence of Ablyazov’s crimes and secured testimony from numerous witnesses to those crimes, which was presented to the jury, leading to today’s verdict.

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