This weekend, Russian drones and scouts surveilling the front line just west of the ruins of Avdiivka, in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, observed something strange. Ukrainian trenches just east of the village of Ocheretyne, previously manned by soldiers from the Ukrainian army’s elite 47th Mechanized Brigade, were empty.

The village was undefended

Seizing the opportunity, the Russian army’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade raced several miles along the railroad threading west from Avdiivka and captured most of Ocheretyne—and potentially also Novobakhmutivka, the village south of Ocheretyne.

It’s the fastest penetration into Ukrainian territory by Russian forces in months—and it threatens to collapse Ukraine’s defensive line west of Avdiivka. A line that has held for months, but now has a deep and widening gap in it. “Pandora’s box is open,” Ukrainian analysis group Deep State commented.

To get a sense of how frightened Ukrainian commanders are right now, consider the brigade they rushed into the breach north and west of Ocheretyne: the 100th Mechanized Brigade. The brigade is one of the newest and most lightly-equipped brigades in the Ukrainian army—and seemingly unsuited for the kind of front-line triage commanders are asking of it.

The collapse in Ocheretyne reportedly isn’t the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s fault. That brigade—the main operator of Ukraine’s American-made armored vehicles—was following orders to withdraw from Ocheretyne in order to redeploy to the rear for a much-needed period of rest after spending nearly a year in combat.

The 115th Mechanized Brigade was supposed to take the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s place in Ocheretyne, seamlessly filling the same fighting positions with enough troops to maintain the integrity of the defensive line west of Avdiivka.

But something went wrong. According to Mykola Melnyk, the famed 47th Mechanized Brigade company commander who lost a leg during Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year, “certain units just fucked off.”

The 115th Mechanized Brigade’s failure to hold the line practically invited the Russian 30th Motor Rifle Brigade into Ocheretyne—and triggered a panicky response in Ukrainian headquarters. Commanders ordered the battle-weary 47th Mechanized Brigade to turn around and return to the front line. They also ordered the 100th Mechanized Brigade to counterattack.

The 100th Mechanized Brigade is a former territorial brigade—the equivalent of a U.S. Army National Guard unit—that the defense ministry in Kyiv upgraded to the active army in late March.

The 100th Mechanized Brigade isn’t inexperienced: its 2,000 or so troopers have seen action many times in Russia’s 26-month wider war on Ukraine. But the brigade lacks the heavy equipment—Western-made tanks, fighting vehicles and artillery—that gives more elite units such as the 47th Mechanized Brigade much of their combat power.

The 100th Mechanized Brigade fought hard, anyway, intercepting the Russian 30th Motor Rifle Brigade and other units from the Russian 41st Combined Arms Army as they attempted to advance toward the village of Prohres, another seven miles to the west along the same railroad linking Avdiivka to Ocheretyne. “The attempt to advance towards Prohres was stopped by a successful counterattack by the 100th Mechanized Brigade,” Deep State reported.

It’s unclear what might happen next in and around Ocheretyne. For now, Ukrainian troops “hold positions in the western part of the village and maintain fire control over its southern part,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted.

That the Ukrainians had to rush into a combat a comparatively weak brigade speaks to the paucity of Ukraine’s reserves west of Avdiivka, however. The Russians, for their part, are keeping an entire tank division, the 90th, in reserve around Avdiivka.

If the 90th Tank Division rolls into Ocheretyne before the Ukrainian eastern command mobilizes additional reinforcements, the Russian penetration could widen into a full-fledged breakthrough—one that could force tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops to retreat west to their next line of defenses.

For the Ukrainians, the best reason to be hopeful is the $1 billion in fresh munitions the United States rushed to Ukraine in the hours after the U.S Congress finally, after six months of delay, approved additional U.S. aid to Ukraine on Tuesday.

The Ukrainian brigades around Ocheretyne will need every bullet, shell and missile they can get. Especially the lightly-equipped 100th Mechanized Brigade.

Source: Forbes

The post Ukraine Had No Choice But To Deploy One Of Its Least-Prepared Brigades appeared first on Zambezi Observer.

Polls show that a large percentage of Israeli citizens have lost faith in the future of their nation

Major General (Reserve) in the Israeli Army, and former ombudsman for the occupation forces, Yitzhak Brick, has sounded an alarm over the growing inefficacy of the country’s army to win a possible war.

Warning that the Israeli occupation forces have turned into an “air force army,” Brick criticized the leadership in Tel Aviv for their “sensitivity” towards human losses on the ground.

“Whoever wants to completely avoid losing on the battlefield, completely loses the deterrence of the army and the ability to win the war. This way of thinking and managing the security echelons will eventually lead to much heavier losses in the war,” the former official said in a column published on 10 May by Channel 12.

Brick went on to add that Israel’s land army and reserve system have been continuously ignored: “We lost the inter-arm combat capability and became a one-dimensional Air Force army that alone could not win a war.”

He goes on to highlight that the occupation forces in general, and the land army in particular, “are not ready for war.”

The warning comes on the heels of a number of polls showing that a large portion of Israeli citizens have lost faith in the future of their nation.

A poll published by the Pnima Movement at the start of the month showed that 40 percent of Israelis were not optimistic about the country’s future. It also showed that 33 percent of Israeli youth are seriously considering emigrating out of the occupied territory.

Meanwhile, at least 75 percent of Israeli Arabs believe Jews have no right to sovereignty in occupied Palestine, according to a survey by Habithonistim–Protectors of Israel published on 9 May.

In an article published in Yedioth Ahronoth on 7 May, former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak expressed fears of the imminent demise of Israel before the 80th anniversary of its founding.

“Throughout Jewish history, the Jews did not rule for more than eighty years, except in the two kingdoms of David and the Hasmonean dynasty, and in both periods, their disintegration began in the eighth decade,” Barak said.

Earlier this year, former Air Force chief Amikam Norkin said Israel no longer enjoys superiority and freedom over the skies of Lebanon, highlighting that this reality was apparent to the Israeli military establishment after Hezbollah began manufacturing its own drones.

In the weeks after this statement by the Israeli official, Iran notified Tel Aviv that the army of the Islamic Republic has missiles pointed at all of their nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons sites.

Source: The Cradle

The post ‘Israeli army not ready for war’: Yitzhak Brick appeared first on Zambezi Observer.

Frankfurt, Paris (14/4 – 40)

Relations between Russia and NATO have reached boiling point due the recent event: the claim that Serbia and Russia want to refight Kosovo; the closure of the border by Finland; and the statement by the President of France, Emanuel Macron, on March, 14. 

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Sergey Lavrov, in a series of posts on social media, claimed that NATO, the EU, and the US government were targeting Kosovo and Serbia and destroying the relationship. Never mind a coalition with Italy and Russia, this is just another pipedream of Radio Moscow.

In recent days, rumours of an impending Balkan war have become more widespread, but experienced Balkan parties are calling for a cool head to prevail. Radio Moscow plays up the usual rubbish of war drums. “People forget that this alliance does not like to use force, but…,” a NATO Air Command spokesman warned.

According to Lavrov, the Kosovo police have long discredited themselves through systematic punitive measures against the Serb community. “They have tried to push the Serbs out of Kosovo through the deployment of heavily armed special forces in non-Albanian areas. There is an immediate threat of a return to the ethnic cleansing carried out by Kosovo Albanian extremists.”

Meanwhile, President Macron said that Europe must be ready for war if it wants peace. He called President Putin would not stop at Ukraine if he succeeded in defeating Kyiv forces in the conflict that has been going on for two years.

President Macron sparked controversy last month after saying he could not link the possibility of ground troops to Ukraine in the future. Many state leaders avoided this, while several other leaders, especially in the Eastern European region, supported the statement. “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility will be destroyed,” Macron said in a television interview.

However, President Putin stated that anything is possible in the modern world. “I have said and it is clear to everyone that this (possible direct conflict with NATO) would be one more step towards a full-scale third world war. I think almost no one is interested in this increasing chaos.” 

He added that French troops would perform secondary functions, training military personnel in Ukraine, explaining how to use heavy equipment, and performing several other similar functions. “Today, it is not much different from what was done by the mercenaries and later armed military personnel of the NATO countries present there,” President Putin said in speech after winning the election. 

Meanwhile, President Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Russia’s relations with NATO had reached the level of direct confrontation. “The relationship has now descended to the level of direct confrontation. NATO not only continues to escalate but is also directly involved in the conflict around Ukraine. NATO continues its advance towards our borders,” he said.

Even so, President Putin is open to dialogue with NATO. According to Peskov, President Putin often holds international dialogue with countries that show interest in developing relations with Russia, “President Putin is open to dialogue to solve complex global and regional problems.”

The post Russia: Fake News Aims to Serbians appeared first on Zambezi Observer.

Sri Lanka has told hundreds of thousands of Russians and some Ukrainians staying in the country to escape the war that they must leave in the next two weeks, immigration officers said.

The immigration controller issued a notice to the tourism ministry asking Russian and Ukrainian people staying on extended tourist visas to leave Sri Lanka within two weeks from 23 February.

Just over 288,000 Russians and nearly 20,000 Ukrainians have traveled to Sri Lanka in the last two years since the war began, according to official data.

Commissioner-General of Immigration said the “government is not granting further visa extensions” as the “flight situation has now normalised”.

However, the office of president Ranil Wickremesinghe ordered an investigation of the notice to the tourism ministry in an apparent bid to prevent diplomatic tensions.

The president’s office said that the notice had been issued without prior cabinet approval and the government had not officially decided to revoke the visa extensions, reported the Sri Lankan newspaper Daily Mirror.

The exact number of visitors who extended their stay beyond the typical 30-day tourist visa duration remains unclear.

However, concerns have been raised over thousands of Russians and a smaller number of Ukrainians staying in the country for an extended period of time and even setting up their own restaurants and nightclubs.

Tourism minister Harin Fernando told Daily Mirror that the ministry has been receiving complaints of some Russian tourists running unregistered and illegal businesses in the southern part of the country.

Raids were conducted by the authorities following discussions with the Immigration Department, he said.

It comes amid a furious social media backlash over Russian-run businesses with a “whites only” policy that strictly bars locals. These businesses include bars, restaurants, water sports and vehicle hiring services.

In a bid to boost tourism and recover from its worst economic crisis since 2022, Sri Lanka began granting 30-days visas on arrival and extensions for up to six months.

In April 2022, the nation defaulted on its $46bn (£36 bn) foreign debt. The economic crisis triggered violent street protests for several months and ultimately culminated in the resignation of then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa three months later.

Source: Independent

The post Sri Lanka ends visas for hundreds of thousands of Russians staying there to avoid war appeared first on Zambezi Observer.

All men in Russia are required to do a year-long military service, or equivalent training during higher education, from the age of 18.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree setting out the routine spring conscription campaign, calling up 150,000 citizens for statutory military service, a document posted on the Kremlin’s website showed on Sunday (31 March).

All men in Russia are required to do a year-long military service, or equivalent training during higher education, from the age of 18.

In July Russia’s lower house of parliament voted to raise the maximum age at which men can be conscripted to 30 from 27. The new legislation came into effect on 1 January 2024.

Compulsory military service has long been a sensitive issue in Russia, where many men go to great lengths to avoid being handed conscription papers during the twice-yearly call-up periods.

Conscripts cannot legally be deployed to fight outside Russia and were exempted from a limited mobilisation in 2022 that gathered at least 300,000 men with previous military training to fight in Ukraine – although some conscripts were sent to the front in error.

In September Putin signed an order calling up 130,000 people for the autumn campaign and last spring Russia planned to conscript 147,000.

Russian attacks

Russian shelling killed at least three people in different regions of eastern Ukraine on the front of the more than two-year-old war against Russia, local officials said, and two more in Lviv region, far from the front lines.

In the centre of the northeastern city of Kharkiv, a frequent target of Russia’s intensifying assaults on energy and other infrastructure, regional governor Oleh Synehubov said a strike targeted civilian infrastructure in the evening.

Regional news outlets said aerial bombs had been dropped on different areas of the region. No injuries were reported.

Earlier on Sunday, heavy shelling killed a man in the town of Borova, southeast of Kharkiv, local prosecutors said.

Police in Donetsk region, in Ukraine’s southeast, said Russian shelling hit 14 towns and villages, with two dead reported in Krasnohorivka, west of the Russian-held regional centre of Donetsk.

Russian forces captured the city of Avdiivka in Donetsk region last month and have since made small gains, but the situation along the 1,000-km front has changed little for months.

Attacks on infrastructure have extended well beyond the front line and Lviv regional governor Maksym Kozitskyi said two bodies were pulled from rubble after on such strike by cruise missiles. Rescue work continued through the day at the site.

Over the border in Russia’s Belgorod Region, a frequent target of Ukrainian shelling, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said a woman was killed when a border village came umder attack.

Reuters could not independently confirm accounts of military action from either side.

Source

The post Putin Signs Decree Calling up 150,000 Citizens for Statutory Military Service appeared first on Zambezi Observer.

The U.S. military should reassess its force posture in Europe and reduce its reliance on revolving door-style unit rotations, a major think tank’s analysts concluded in a Monday report.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies’ transnational threat team based their study on official documents, open-source materials and interviews with subject-matter experts.

The report’s authors recommend that the Army abandon the rotational armor brigade deployment model that “eats up … the Army’s force structure and long-term readiness.” Currently, two armor brigades are deployed to Europe. Instead, the report said, the service should permanently station an Armored Brigade Combat Team in Poland to replace one rotational unit and eliminate the remaining rotation altogether.

An Army Times investigation found that tank brigades and enlisted tank crew members were at higher risk of suicide than other soldiers in recent years, due in part to a decade of high operational tempo fueled by such non-combat deployments. The service once had armor brigades in Europe, but they were removed in the early 2010s.

Currently, the Army maintains a large presence of rotational forces in Europe. V Corps’ forward headquarters in Poznan, Poland oversees the three temporarily deployed brigade combat teams, which includes one light infantry brigade in addition to the two armor brigades. Other rotational forces include division headquarters, a combat aviation brigade, fires assets and sustainment units.

But the short-tour model has consequences, the report’s authors argued. They cost more money in the long-term compared to permanent bases, and they are less integrated into the continent’s culture and defense network. The deployment-based model negatively impacts soldiers, too — the authors said evidence suggests they “separate military personnel from their families,” causing “low morale” that can spawn “discipline issues and increased divorce rates.”

Army spokesperson Col. Roger Cabiness II told Army Times, however, that “forward basing of an ABCT is not a simple task.” Doing so would require diplomatic and legislative approvals both at home and abroad.

Despite efforts to reduce their operational tempo, the Army’s armor units continue to deploy at a high rate to fulfill the Europe requirements. The 4th Infantry Division’s 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team cased its colors Monday, signifying its departure for an eight- or nine-month Europe rotation. The Iron Brigade’s new mission is beginning roughly 16 months after returning to Fort Carson, Colorado from another Europe deployment that wrapped in December 2022.

The report’s authors also recommended that the Air Force station an additional F-16 squadron in Germany; increase anti-submarine warfare capability and air defense forces; bolster stockpiles of prepositioned equipment and ammunition; and continue modernization, cyber, space and security cooperation efforts.

Source: Army Times

The post Army should permanently station armor brigade in Poland, report argues appeared first on Zambezi Observer.

Berlin (2/3 – 62.50).           

Lt. Gen. Alfons Mais says the €100 billion committed by the government last year is insufficient. Meanwhile, an association representing soldiers says the Bundeswehr turnaround needs to speed up.

Germany would have to spend more money on its armed forces if it wants it fully equipped, army chief Lieutenant General Alfons Mais said on Sunday.

He told the German news agency, dpa, the €100 billion ($107 billion) to speed up the modernization of the armed forces promised by Chancellor Olaf Scholz after Russia invaded Ukraine was not enough. 

Mais, caused a stir last year when he criticized what he described as years of neglect in the operational readiness of the Bundeswehr,  “the army that I have the duty to lead, is more or less bare,” he said at the time. 

Mais said one year on he was trying to refrain from using the term “bare.”

“I see a great deal of pressure to move forward with the replenishments at the greatest possible speed,” he said.

But in addition to replacing equipment that has been given to Ukraine, a “material increase towards full equipment” was important, Mais stressed. “However, the special fund alone will not be enough to achieve this,” he warned. 

German military not changing fast enough, soldiers say

His sentiments were echoed in a separate interview the head of the independent Armed Forces Association (DBwV), Colonel Andre Wüstner, did with Bild am Sonntag.

He told the mass-market weekly paper there has been “no noticeable improvement” for soldiers since Scholz made the announcement last year.

“More speed is needed, whether in terms of material, personnel or infrastructure, a real turnaround that can be felt in the troops is needed during this parliamentary period … otherwise the ‘turning point’ is over,” Wüstner said.

Wüstner added the German military, or Bundeswehr, is carrying out its assigned missions, “but that is nothing compared to what we will have to contribute to NATO in the future.”

He warned that none of the military hardware supplied to Ukraine had been replaced and that means the operational readiness of parts of the military, such as it artillery, “continues to decline.”

Germany committed to ramping up military spending

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year Scholz announced a “turning point” that would trigger weapons shipments to a nation at war and a massive increase in Germany’s military spending.

Bundeswehr officers have complained for many years that Germany has been neglecting its ability to defend its country and its NATO alliance partners.

Since announcing the €100 billion special fund for the Bundeswehr, about €30 billion has been committed to contracts for specific projects, Defense Ministry spokesman Arne Collatz said Wednesday.

Opposition leader Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union, whcih held power for 16 years before the Scholz government, complained during a parliamentary debate earlier this month that “large parts of the so-called ‘turning point’ that you described here on February 27 last year so far are happening largely on paper in Germany.”

Merz said it was unacceptable that “practically no orders” had yet been placed, particularly for ammunition.

Germany’s new defense minister, Boris Pistorius, has, however, vowed to speed up arms procurement and ramp up ammunition supplies.

Scholz, in a speech to the Munich Security Conference last weekend, also again promised to push Germany’s defense spending up to 2% of GDP “permanently.”

But his defense minister wants to go even further, “We will reach the 2% target, but we will also make every effort to go beyond that,” Pistorius told the same conference. lo/sms (AP, AFP, dpa)

The post German army chief wants more money for equipment. appeared first on Zambezi Observer.

The businesses sanctioned are Alkhaleej Bank and Al-Fakher Advanced Works, controlled by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Zadna International, controlled by the Sudanese army, according to a US Treasury Department statement.

War broke out last April between the two forces, resulting in the devastation of wide swaths of the country, the killing of thousands of civilians, warnings of famine and the world’s largest internal displacement crisis.

The RSF are accused by the US of participating in an ethnic cleansing campaign in West Darfur, along with war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The army, which has carried out a widespread airstrike campaign, is also accused of war crimes by the US.

“The conflict in Sudan continues, in part, due to key individuals and entities that help fund the continuation of the violence,” said Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson.

Alkhaleej Bank is “an essential part of the RSF’s efforts to finance its operations” that received $50 million from the Central Bank of Sudan (CBoS) just before the war broke out, the Treasury Department said.

Holding company Alfakher was used to manage the RSF’s lucrative gold exports, its main source of financing to buy weapons.

Meanwhile, Zadna International was described as a “top revenue-earner” for the Sudanese army. The US Treasury Department said it continued to provide funding and was used for money-laundering.

The sanctions were imposed under a US executive order authorising sanctions on individuals who are destabilising Sudan and undermining the country’s democratic transition, the Treasury Department said.

Since the war began, the US has sanctioned the deputy head of the RSF, other major businesses owned by both sides, and other entities.

Source: The East African

The post US sanctions businesses controlled by Sudan army, RSF appeared first on Zambezi Observer.

This is how Alexei Navalny described the cell in which he spent 308 out of 1125 days in solitary confinement. His imprisonment amounted to both physical and mental torture of a political opponent. The fact that this tragedy occurred in FKU IK-3, known as one of the harshest prisons in Russia with direct ties to the gulag system, is more than symbolic. In other words, Alexei Navalny’s death is not just a personal tragedy, it is also a manifestation of the true nature of the Putin regime: arbitrary, harsh, brutal, and unforgiving.

Alexei Navalny was acutely aware of the risks involved, yet he made the decision to return to Russia following his treatment for poisoning inflicted by Russia’s secret forces. Regardless of one’s opinion on Navalny’s legacy – acknowledging his nationalist views and well-known stance on Crimea – his return stands as an act of unparalleled courage. It’s a profound and enigmatic gesture that many struggle to comprehend, reserved for a select few: individuals of exceptional courage facing extraordinary circumstances.

Even if we may never know the exact circumstances surrounding Navalny’s death, it is clear that President Putin bears direct responsibility. Let us not forget other opponents who have died in mysterious circumstances – remember Anna Politkovskaya and Boris Nemtsov – and the many still imprisoned by Putin’s arbitrary system – remember Ilya Yashin, Vladimir Kara-Murza, Evan Gershkovich, and many others. I wonder what Western propagandists in favor of the Kremlin have to say about this. Aren’t they also complicit?

The question remains if Navalny’s death may signify the so-called black swan that announces the unexpected, yet significant event that may irreversibly change the state of affairs in Russia. Unfortunately, we do not expect that Navalny’s death will cause major upheaval in Russian society. Most probably, we will see an asymmetric response: Russian society – with exception of the absolute minority who saw in Mr. Navalny a source of hope and an alternative for Putin’s reign – will remain indifferent. Two arguments may underscore this statement:

We know that a minority of about 15 to 20 percent of the Russia population is eager for major political change in Russia, that a cohort of about the same strength is supporting the regime in the most fanatical way, leaving about 60 to 70 percent of the population that support the regime conditionally. Moreover, since the start of the war, February 2022, we have witnessed an increased and ruthless repression, first and foremost, against those who oppose the regime even through the most innocent expression. What is left for Putin’s opposition is fear, isolation and depression. It is clear, in an authoritarian regime, courage is required for those who resist. Currently, it is but a flower in the snow on a sidewalk in Moscow.

Western observers may also not forget that Navalny’s political impact is very low, mostly due to his isolation from society. Liberal candidates against Putin are not only systematically silenced or suppressed, they have in most general terms no large appeal to the general public. In the case of Navalny, people were interested in his anti-corruption campaign against the elite, except for Putin himself. Indeed, the Russian elite is most despised by the Russian people, with the exception of the ultimate leader. Seemingly, this is a Russian cultural topos still valid in contemporary Russia. As a result, in public opinion research, Navalny could count on the support of about 1 percent of the population and has not appeared in the ratings of trustworthy politicians lately.

Many questions remain unanswered in Russia’s political labyrinth. Firstly, how will Navalny’s death be interpreted within the presidential administration – often referred to as Putin’s shadow government – given its occurrence amidst the backdrop of the upcoming presidential elections in March? Beyond the veil of political window-dressing, which is essentially a façade for deception, this event is likely to evoke unease. It certainly cannot be construed as ‘good news’ for the political strategists and election managers, with Mr. Sergey Kiriyenko at the forefront, who are keen to ensure a smooth path for Putin’s re-election. Secondly, and closely tied to this, the way the Kremlin navigates Navalny’s demise remains uncertain. How will the Kremlin portray Navalny’s death? What arrangements will be made for his funeral? Ultimately, despite Western condemnation and outrage, the Russian regime holds the key to its own destiny. The only glimmer of hope lies in the possibility that Navalny’s death – and the bravery he exhibited – will not be in vain.

Source: Egmont Institute

The post Courage in the Face of Tyranny – Remembering Alexei Navalny appeared first on Zambezi Observer.

Nairobi has in the past fortnight hosted senior US intelligence and defence chiefs, including Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns and head of the Africa Command (Africom) General Michael Langley. Their visits, about whose outcomes the government kept mum, yielded pledges of security and intelligence cooperation. Gen Langley also visited Somalia and Djibouti, while the CIA boss toured Somalia and DR Congo.

This week, Kenya was the only Horn of Africa country to publicly endorse airstrikes on the Iran-backed Houthi, whose acts of targeting ships in the Red Sea are now categorised by the West as terrorism.

“These strikes were designed to disrupt and degrade the capability of the Houthis to continue their attacks on global trade and innocent mariners from around the world, while avoiding escalation,” said a statement by the White House on Wednesday.

“We condemn these attacks, and demand an end to them. We also underscore that those who supply the Houthis with the weapons to conduct these attacks are violating UN Security Council Resolution 2216 and international law. The January 22 international response to the continuing Houthi attacks demonstrated shared resolve to uphold navigational rights and freedoms, and to defend the lives of mariners from illegal and unjustifiable attacks.”

The statement was endorsed by the governments of Kenya, Guinea-Bissau, Albania, Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Netherlands, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Poland, Korea, Romania, UK, and US.

The Houthis were not initially considered a threat beyond their country. But since December, they have launched at least 30 attacks on commercial and naval ships passing through the Red Sea, ostensibly to retaliate for Israel’s war in Gaza against the Hamas militant group. Houthis have argued theirs is revenge for Israel’s atrocities on Palestinians.

While the Red Sea shipping route is crucial to Eastern African countries, shortening the importation times from Europe, the Horn of Africa states have steered clear of backing the counter-strikes. Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and Tanzania – all of whom may be affected by any maritime insecurity there — have chosen a neutral stance.

Kenya’s cooperation on the Houthi matter is meant to be an insurance policy against local piracy, a diplomatic source told The EastAfrican. But there are fears that it could attract the wrath of terror groups keen to raise their profile by appearing to side with the Palestinians.

Last week, the International Chamber of Commerce’s International Maritime Bureau advised shippers to remain vigilant as they transit waters off Somalia and the Gulf of Aden, as piracy remains a threat.

Attacks in the Red Sea mean ships reroute via the Gulf of Guinea to the southern tip of Africa, adding some 6,000km on their voyages, which brings in the importance of Guinea Bissau in securing that route.

The US considers Kenya an important and influential ally as “East Africa’s most dynamic economy”, which is “a growing regional business and financial hub”.

In 2018, Washington and Nairobi formally elevated their relations to a strategic partnership, prioritising five pillars of engagement: economic prosperity, trade, and investment; defence cooperation; democracy, governance, and civilian security; multilateral and regional issues; and public health cooperation.

In 2022, the two countries started negotiating the Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (Stip), which Kenya hopes will help foster growth and improve its business environment.

Nairobi, meanwhile, is availing itself of Washington’s power of oversight and management of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, to ease pressure on debt repayment and rescue the economy.

It has not been lost on observers that, around the period it was hosting the senior US officials, the IMF approved $684.7 million disbursement to Kenya to shore up its ability to repay its first Eurobond, which matures in June.

The new funds are part of the $941.2 million from the augmentation/expansion of resources under the fund’s multiyear arrangement with Kenya.

Kenya has lobbied for additional resources from the IMF since last year, citing heightened balance of payment needs from the upcoming outsized maturity amid difficulties in accessing alternative funding from the international capital markets.

Besides leveraging IMF funding, Kenya has been seeking additional concessional funding from other sources, including the World Bank, alongside syndicated loans.

Sources told The EastAfrican that Kenya has agreed to support the anti-Houthi operation for American support for its own maritime and local security apparatus. The US has been campaigning against any direct or indirect support for the Houthis, including through Iran.
But Washington has also been subtle about first seeking to dissuade Houthis off the terror cause.

On January 17, 2024, the US Department of State announced the designation of Ansarallah (Houthis) as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), effective February 16, 2024. It said the delayed implementation was to help “change behaviour” of Houthis, rather than punish them.

US former president Donald Trump’s administration had previously designated Houthis as a SDGT and as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO), but this labelling was reversed by President Joe Biden soon after he took power in February 2021, due to concerns that the measures could be an obstacle to humanitarian assistance reaching the Yemeni people.

On Thursday, the US and UK designated four Houthi military chiefs, Mohamed al-Atifi, Muhammad Fadl Abd al-Nabi, Muhammad Ali al-Qadiri and Muhammad Ahmad al-Talibi for targeting ships.

Americans have used influence, too, imposing a soft power of pledges, military support and financial backing for allies.

In Africa, only Kenya and Guinea-Bissau have publicly voiced support for aerial raids on Houthis. They have coincidentally suffered the pain of sea piracy in the past.

In Nairobi, officials publicly spoke of that military support from the US. Kenya’s Defence Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale, while not discussing the specific content of their meeting with Gen Langley said: “The US has been a critical partner in supporting Kenya’s quest in enhancing peace, security, and stability in the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes Region.”

“The US government has been playing a key role in the support of the construction of the Kenya Defence Forces’ (KDF’s) Counter Insurgency, Terrorism and Stability Operations (Citso) Centre and offering the KDF personnel training opportunities.”

On Tuesday this week, the US, UK and more than 20 of their allies launched strikes against Houthis, warning the strikes will go on until Houthis call off the attacks. In a statement, UK said 24 countries, including the US, Germany and Australia, conducted strikes on Monday against eight targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen in their bid to end the ongoing attacks in Red Sea.

For Kenya, the Houthis are not as a direct threat as the resurgence of piracy off the coast of Somalia with the threat of a rise in insurance premiums for shipping and hence the cost of importing goods via the Port of Mombasa.

A global naval coalition led by the US and the European Union almost wiped out piracy in the past decade. But four vessels have been attacked by pirates off Somalia since November 2023. Two of them were released while the other two are yet to be freed.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has vowed to keep hampering the ability of the Houthis to attack ships.

“We are not seeking a confrontation,” he told parliament Monday.

“We urge the Houthis and those who enable them to stop these illegal and unacceptable attacks.”

Meanwhile, the United Nations on Wednesday asked Houthi authorities to reconsider their decision to expel US and British nationals working for the world body in Yemen.

Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, confirmed that the UN had received communication from the Houthi, giving all US and British nationals a month to leave the areas under their control.

“Any request or requirement for UN staff to leave based solely on the nationality of that staff is inconsistent with the legal framework applicable to the UN,” said Dujarric. “It also impedes our ability to deliver on the mandate to support all of the people in Yemen. And we call on all the authorities in Yemen to ensure that our staff can continue to perform their functions on behalf of the UN.”

He said UN staff serve impartially and serve the flag of the United Nations and none other.

The spokesman refused to say how many US and British nationals are working for the United Nations in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

Source: The East African

The post US pushes Nairobi into anti-Houthi campaign as EA peers steer clear appeared first on Zambezi Observer.